Trap Lines and Watching RLM (Real Line Movement)
MEMBER UPDATE…Thursday, Sept. 30, 2010
How We Broke “Trap Line” And Won Monday Bears/Under & What I See Tonight
by Jason Thane, CEO, Phantom Sports Picks
HOW WE BROKE FREE OF THE TRAP AND WON BOTH THE BEARS & UNDER MONDAY AND WHAT I SEE IN TONIGHT’S ESPN TV GAME: TEXAS A&M @ OKLAHOMA ST
I love writing success stories for members.
Monday night, we literally went against the entire country by picking the Bears over the Packers and we won while almost everyone else lost.
That win is the perfect example of why Phantom Sports Picks is very, very different from any other service in the country.
On paper, the Packers appeared to have an offense that could run wild at Soldier Field. Their defense was certainly considered to be strong enough to shut down the suspect Bears offense with the much vilified.
Because of that, 80% of the public (and a large percentage of the sports services), I’m told, were all over the Packers. The money was flowing faster than the oil from the BP spill. Our contacts in Las Vegas and off-shore were telling us guys couldn’t wait to get their money down with both fists full of dollars on the Packers.
But, surprise, the line didn’t budge. Not a point, not a half point.
If you’re a thinking service that knows the ins and outs of sports betting, that is a very suspicious occurrence. Usually the Vegas Sports books and the suits that run them are so afraid of losing a quarter that when their books get even slightly unbalanced, they rush to adjust the spread.
That just didn’t happen Monday.
Obviously, with our state of the art computer and stat staff, we had the same information everyone else did, but before we pulled the trigger on the Packers that suspicious line activity caused us to take a deeper look.
So we examined three basic criteria to spot a trap game…
A. Which side of the ball game the money is truly on?
B. How the line is reacting to it?
C. How to capitalize on the lines reactions to the lopsided play?
Real line movement is “pure line steam” information. That comes from “in the know guys” making huge wagers.
Monday night’s betting majority was amateur money.
Under normal circumstances, that much money hitting on the Packers should have moves the line to 4 or even 4 ½ and maybe 5 points with the Packers favored. Instead, the Las Vegas suits didn’t react at all.
In short, the casinos and sports books wanted the public to keep betting the Packers. They were inviting you to bet the favorite.
That’s like being the fly invited into the web by the spider. THEY DIDN’T BUILD THOSE PALACES IN THE DESERT IN LAS VEGAS BECAUSE THE AVERAGE GUY WINS. And they are NOT IN THE HABIT of giving away money.
At Phantom Sports Picks we avoided the trap by going with the Bears. If the Las Vegas sports books wanted us to bet the Packers, the only intelligent response was to play the Bears, who got our highest rating in the key “where is the money coming from” handicapping category.
Interestingly, while nosing about the sports books, our guys picked up information that the really smart bettors were (like our handicappers) really going after the under in the game.
Hence, we jumped on the under too, caught the parlay and avoided the “Monday Night Massacre” that crushed the large majority of bettors and services.
WHAT DO I SEE TONIGHT…?
Oklahoma State (-3) Texas A&M (+3)
This is a matchup between unbeaten teams that started with a “soft” and “softer” schedule.
Oklahoma State’s opponents wouldn’t scare too many schools. Washington State has lost to 12 straight FBS schools. Tulsa has wins over Bowling Green and an FCS level team, Central Arkansas. And Troy is just 2-2 and lost to UAB. The Cowboys start 13 true freshmen, the youngest team in the nation.
Texas A&M’s schedule was even softer, opening with tiny Stephen Austin, then coming back against Louisiana Tech and Florida International. The first two would have trouble with a good Junior College level team.
This is another game where our understanding of Las Vegas and contacts could make the huge difference. I am waiting on important calls from connected people who can give me a more definitive outlook.
If you want to consult with me on tonight’s game, I suggest you call me directly and I’ll give you my selection for the GAME and tell you all the details as to what I have uncovered late.
I can be reached personally toll free at 1-866-350-5625 (LOCK)