SEPT 23 2010
Sometimes the best thing you can do is sit on your hands and pass.
Monday night was a great example of that. I really thought the Saints would win. Early on I toyed with the idea of giving them out. But as the day wore on I became suspicious. I thought the line was fishy. And, I was hearing about odd betting patterns cropping up offshore.
The more I thought about it, the more suspicious I became. Finally, I decided to simply tell you to PASS. That was definitely the right decision. The Saints won, but didn’t cover, which seems to be their modus operandi. But that wild finish with 14 points within about two minutes meant the game could have gone either way right up to the final gun. And, the Saints could have scored a TD instead of kicking a field goal and covered. So, the right decision was to pass.
It’s hard to NOT PULL THE TRIGGER sometimes. We were coming off a 5-2 Sunday and when you’re on a streak the natural urge is to press your luck and push. Instead, I pulled back and I think it was the right decision for all involved.
Plus, it put you on notice that I won’t “just gamble” with your money. If I release a game, I know I have the edge and the winning information.
TRENDS THIS WEEK
Some stat trends from our computer records this week are illuminating.
Virginia Tech gets the rankings, but Boston College wins against the spread. BC has beaten the spread against the Hokies in 8 of their last 12 meetings.
No wonder Bobby Bowden had to go at Florida State. Wake Forest is on a 4-1 spread streak against the Seminoles. Once that would have been an unheard of stat.
Cal holds a 5-2 spread edge against Arizona in their last 7 meetings.
Colorado State, which hosts Idaho this Saturday, is 5-0 spread-wise in its last five home games against WAC schools.
W. Virginia is 5-1 straight up against SEC schools. The Mountaineers are dogs this week when traveling to LSU.
Oregon is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread in its last 3 visits to Arizona State.
Sunday, it is interesting to note that the Titans have covered the last 4 times they played the Giants.
The Bills have lost 18 of their last 19 against the Patriots. Talk about being “owned.”
Jaguars have played the Eagles only 3 times in history, but they have come out victorious against the spread and straight up in all 3 of those games. Another trend that fits this game is the fact that the Eagles are only 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC South Teams.
Check Back Sunday for an update after Saturday’s college plays.